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Abstract
Turkey is one of the top tourism destinations in the world and the tourism industry has become an indispensable source of income. The main inbound tourism market for Turkey is Europe with a 50% average of the total tourist arrivals followed by Russia and the Asian countries. Tourism is an important industry, especially for tourist receiving countries where tourism is a major source of foreign exchange earnings. As the foreign exchange earnings are directly related with the tourist expenditure, then the effects of prices or more commonly the exchange rates should be considered in any demand study. Accordingly, this study attempts to reveal the time varying causal relationships between exchange rates and tourist arrivals for different inbound tourist markets. The time varying linkages between the nominal Euro exchange rate and tourist arrivals from the EU-15 countries (namely; Austria, Belgium, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Ireland, Italy, Luxembourg, Netherlands, Portugal, Spain, Sweden, United Kingdom) to Turkey for the period of 2002:01-2014:12 is investigated using time varying bootstrap analysis. The results indicate that time-varying causality is bidirectional for different time periods and different countries, but existing for each tourism market. Implications of the empirical findings are discussed in conclusion.
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